NHL SIM LAB
Data just now
DAYWED
DATE11·11
GAMES06

Every game played 10,000 times before puck drop.

6GAMES
10KSIMS PER GAME
0/12GOALIES CONFIRMED
2–0PAPER RECORD
FEATURED MATCHUP6:00 PM CT
Away
PROJECTED3.5–3.3EXPECTED GOALS
Home
WIN54%fair -116
WIN46%fair +116
OVER 5.567%fair -200
TO OT20%fair +407
SOGGAUTHIER 3+ · 89%GOALCELEBRINI ANYTIME · 40%SAVESCOOLEY 25+ · 63%MLTO WIN · 54%TOTALUTA–VGK O5.5 · 68%SOGCELEBRINI 3+ · 76%GOALHAGEL ANYTIME · 40%SAVESANNUNEN 25+ · 54%MLTO WIN · 61%TOTALTBL–BUF O5.5 · 67%SOGDRAISAITL 3+ · 75%GOALGAUTHIER ANYTIME · 39%SAVESASKAROV 25+ · 54%MLTO WIN · 61%TOTALPIT–SJS O5.5 · 65%SOGTHOMPSON 3+ · 69%GOALGUENTZEL ANYTIME · 38%SAVESLUUKKONEN 25+ · 54%MLTO WIN · 54%SOGHAGEL 3+ · 66%GOALHERTL ANYTIME · 37%MLTO WIN · 51%SOGKUCHEROV 3+ · 64%MLTO WIN · 51%SOGDOROFEYEV 3+ · 59%SOGSTAMKOS 3+ · 58%
CANADA UNITED STATES
@6:00 PM CT
KeyBank Center
trip993 mi
win54%
win46%
Both teams rested
@6:30 PM CT
Scotiabank Saddledome
trip175 mi
win61%
win39%
Both teams rested
@8:00 PM CT
Rogers Place
trip508 mi
win39%
win61%
3rd game in 4 nights · rink counts 2% more shots
@8:30 PM CT
T-Mobile Arena
trip2.1K mi
win46%
win54%
2,128 mi trip, 3 time zones west, road game 6 in a row · 1,975 mi trip, 3 time zones west
@9:00 PM CT
Honda Center
trip28 mi
win49%
win51%
2nd night of a back-to-back
@9:00 PM CT
SAP Center at San Jose
trip332 mi
win51%
win49%
Both teams rested
01 — THE ICE

WHERE THE SHOTS COME FROM

shots · attacks right →shots · ← attacks leftGoal (puck)
Each team's last game: 11-08 vs · 11-08 vs
WINS54%
fair -116
WINS46%
fair +116
OVER 5.567%
fair -200 · OT 20%
SIM SHOTS28.6–27.9
goals 3.5–3.3
DANGER ZONESWhere each team shoots from and where the other lets them, 5-on-5, last 10 games. Brighter = more than the league average. Already part of the xG; shown here so you can see the matchup.
attacking vs defending
24%48%28%
ZONETBL SHOOTSBUF ALLOWSLEAGUE
Slot24%23%23%
Middle46%51%48%
Point30%26%29%
attacking vs defending
21%50%29%
ZONEBUF SHOOTSTBL ALLOWSLEAGUE
Slot21%21%23%
Middle48%52%48%
Point31%27%29%
shots · attacks right →shots · ← attacks leftGoal (puck)
Each team's last game: 11-09 vs · 11-08 vs
WINS61%
fair -157
WINS39%
fair +157
OVER 5.553%
fair -115 · OT 21%
SIM SHOTS29.5–27.3
goals 3.3–2.7
DANGER ZONESWhere each team shoots from and where the other lets them, 5-on-5, last 10 games. Brighter = more than the league average. Already part of the xG; shown here so you can see the matchup.
attacking vs defending
24%46%30%
ZONENYR SHOOTSCGY ALLOWSLEAGUE
Slot27%21%23%
Middle45%47%48%
Point29%31%29%
attacking vs defending
23%45%32%
ZONECGY SHOOTSNYR ALLOWSLEAGUE
Slot22%25%23%
Middle47%42%48%
Point31%33%29%
shots · attacks right →shots · ← attacks leftGoal (puck)
Each team's last game: 11-09 vs · 11-09 vs
WINS39%
fair +156
WINS61%
fair -156
OVER 5.535%
fair +187 · OT 23%
SIM SHOTS26.0–26.5
goals 2.1–2.8
DANGER ZONESWhere each team shoots from and where the other lets them, 5-on-5, last 10 games. Brighter = more than the league average. Already part of the xG; shown here so you can see the matchup.
attacking vs defending
23%48%29%
ZONEPHI SHOOTSEDM ALLOWSLEAGUE
Slot27%20%23%
Middle45%50%48%
Point29%30%29%
attacking vs defending
23%43%33%
ZONEEDM SHOOTSPHI ALLOWSLEAGUE
Slot22%25%23%
Middle41%46%48%
Point37%29%29%
shots · attacks right →shots · ← attacks leftGoal (puck)
Each team's last game: 11-07 vs · 11-08 vs
WINS46%
fair +120
WINS54%
fair -120
OVER 5.568%
fair -215 · OT 20%
SIM SHOTS26.7–27.3
goals 3.3–3.6
DANGER ZONESWhere each team shoots from and where the other lets them, 5-on-5, last 10 games. Brighter = more than the league average. Already part of the xG; shown here so you can see the matchup.
attacking vs defending
22%51%27%
ZONEUTA SHOOTSVGK ALLOWSLEAGUE
Slot25%19%23%
Middle52%49%48%
Point23%31%29%
attacking vs defending
20%46%34%
ZONEVGK SHOOTSUTA ALLOWSLEAGUE
Slot21%20%23%
Middle47%45%48%
Point32%35%29%
shots · attacks right →shots · ← attacks leftGoal (puck)
Each team's last game: 11-10 vs · 11-08 vs
WINS49%
fair +102
WINS51%
fair -102
OVER 5.557%
fair -134 · OT 21%
SIM SHOTS26.8–28.2
goals 3.1–3.1
DANGER ZONESWhere each team shoots from and where the other lets them, 5-on-5, last 10 games. Brighter = more than the league average. Already part of the xG; shown here so you can see the matchup.
attacking vs defending
26%47%27%
ZONENSH SHOOTSANA ALLOWSLEAGUE
Slot25%27%23%
Middle46%49%48%
Point28%25%29%
attacking vs defending
23%47%30%
ZONEANA SHOOTSNSH ALLOWSLEAGUE
Slot21%25%23%
Middle49%46%48%
Point31%29%29%
shots · attacks right →shots · ← attacks leftGoal (puck)
Each team's last game: 11-08 vs · 11-09 vs
WINS51%
fair -106
WINS49%
fair +106
OVER 5.565%
fair -183 · OT 20%
SIM SHOTS28.4–27.3
goals 3.4–3.3
DANGER ZONESWhere each team shoots from and where the other lets them, 5-on-5, last 10 games. Brighter = more than the league average. Already part of the xG; shown here so you can see the matchup.
attacking vs defending
26%47%27%
ZONEPIT SHOOTSSJS ALLOWSLEAGUE
Slot27%26%23%
Middle47%47%48%
Point27%27%29%
attacking vs defending
24%47%28%
ZONESJS SHOOTSPIT ALLOWSLEAGUE
Slot23%25%23%
Middle46%48%48%
Point30%26%29%

PRESS BOX

SIMEvery game played 10,000 times
GOALIE0 of 12 starters confirmed · rest projected
B2B 2nd night of a back-to-back-5%
TRAVEL 2,128 mi trip, 3 time zones west, road game 6 in a row-4%
REST 3rd game in 4 nights-2%
TRAVEL 1,975 mi trip, 3 time zones west-2%
PP PP #8 vs PK #2-0.20 xG
PP PP #32 vs PK #32+0.16 xG
PIM lineup takes 10% fewer penalties (Durzi out)-10%
PIM lineup draws 7% more penalties+7%
RINK Rogers Place counts 2% more shots+2%
OUT Marchessault not in lineup10-31
OUT Cooley not in lineup11-07
OUT Point not in lineup11-08
OUT Guenther not in lineup11-07
GOALIE Luukkonen · lean
02 — THE BOARD

TONIGHT'S PROPS, BY THE NUMBERS

SHOTS ON GOAL LADDER

Chance to reach each line in 10,000 sims · fair odds underneathAll players →
PLAYER2+3+4+5+
61
Cutter Gauthierproj 5.2 shotsproj 5.2
2+96%-2733
3+89%-822
4+76%-315
5+59%-145
71
Macklin Celebriniproj 4.0 shotsproj 4.0
2+91%-995
3+76%-318
4+56%-129
5+37%+170
29
Leon Draisaitlproj 3.9 shotsproj 3.9
2+90%-930
3+75%-297
4+55%-122
5+35%+187
72
Tage Thompsonproj 3.6 shotsproj 3.6
2+87%-656
3+69%-222
4+47%+111
5+29%+245
38
Brandon Hagelproj 3.4 shotsproj 3.4
2+85%-565
3+66%-192
4+44%+125
5+26%+291
86
Nikita Kucherovproj 3.3 shotsproj 3.3
2+84%-535
3+64%-180
4+41%+144
5+23%+331
16
Pavel Dorofeyevproj 3.0 shotsproj 3.0
2+80%-412
3+59%-142
4+36%+177
5+19%+420
91
Steven Stamkosproj 3.0 shotsproj 3.0
2+80%-406
3+58%-137
4+35%+182
5+19%+429
59
Roman Josiproj 3.0 shotsproj 3.0
2+80%-395
3+57%-134
4+35%+185
5+18%+458
97
Connor McDavidproj 2.9 shotsproj 2.9
2+79%-373
3+56%-127
4+33%+199
5+17%+477

LIGHT THE LAMP

Chance to score, from the sims
Macklin Celebrini40% fair +152
Brandon Hagel40% fair +152
Cutter Gauthier39% fair +155
Jake Guentzel38% fair +163
Tomas Hertl37% fair +168

IN THE CREASE

SAVES25+28+31+
A. Vasilevskiyprojected · likelyGSAx -1.3
50%-101
28%+259
13%+692
U. Luukkonenprojected · leanGSAx -2.0
54%-117
32%+212
15%+561
D. Garandprojected · likelyGSAx +0.0
52%-106
29%+244
13%+663
D. Cooleyprojected · leanGSAx +1.5
63%-173
40%+149
21%+384
J. Wollprojected · leanGSAx +4.8
44%+130
23%+342
9%+965
T. Jarryprojected · leanGSAx +1.3
45%+122
23%+328
10%+874
K. Vejmelkaprojected · leanGSAx -7.2
44%+128
22%+348
9%+991
A. Hillprojected · leanGSAx +2.2
41%+142
21%+381
8%+1086
J. Annunenprojected · leanGSAx -0.7
54%-120
32%+217
14%+593
L. Brossoitprojected · leanGSAx +0.0
43%+130
23%+336
9%+987
A. Silovsprojected · likelyGSAx -4.5
46%+116
25%+306
10%+874
Y. Askarovprojected · likelyGSAx +3.3
54%-118
31%+222
14%+610
Tonight's starter per team (hover for why) · chance of each save line in the sims · GSAx: Biscuit Book xGAll goalies →